Hi, fellas,
Back again for some thoughts on the 4/25 UFC show taking place (for the first time) in sunny Miami, Florida.
I'm 6-2-1 in MMA thus far this year, but bettor beware: this card is tight. Very even match-ups, with even the heavy favorites standing a chance of losing. Great for the fans, crap for the high rollers.
Here's what stands out at me. Bet conservatively this time around. With such close bouts, I was looking for value.
Welterweight Title Fight
Matt Hughes over Sean Sherk by Decision +415
Hughes is a monster wrestler who has been hospitalizing recent opposition. He drove Carlos Newton through the mat, pummeled Hayato Sakurai, and beat the pretty out of Newton's face a second time. An accidental headbutt finished Gil Castillo.
Sherk has been operating under the radar for the past few years, but his record of 22-0 is no joke. Like Hughes, Sherk looks to ground opponents and then lay into them. This looks to be a case of the immovable object/irresistable force. The strength of both these guys could wind up negating each other. Hughes is the heavy favorite here at -600, and rightly so. But I don't know that he can stop Sherk outright. Likewise, I don't see how Sherk would be able to snag the belt from the champ in a decision. Good value in this line.
Evan Tanner def. Rich Franklin by TKO +110
Franklin is making his UFC debut here and has looked very impressive as of late. Even so, Tanner is a killer who absolutely loves to deliver sharp elbows to open a fight-ending cut. Franklin may look good early on, but I can't believe Tanner will have much trouble imposing his will here.
Wes Correira def. Sean Alvarez by KO +125
Forget about it: Correira went two rounds with current champ Tim Sylvia while former champ Ricco Rodriguez didn't last two minutes. Alvarez barely fights and has intention to stand up with the slugger. Bad move. "Cabbage" ain't pretty, but he gets the job done here.
Genki Sudo Def. Duane Ludwig by submission -102
Near-even money gets you a solid shot here. Ludwig just KOed former UFC champ Jens Pulver, but Sudo won't be foolish enough to trade strikes with him. Ludwig will get finished on the ground in the first ten minutes. Sudo is way too smooth for him.
Pete Spratt Def. Robbie Lawler +400
Spratt did not impress in November, when Carlos Newton subbed him in seconds. But this is a different game: Lawler fancies himself a striker, but he's never met anyone who hits like Spratt. This will be quick either way, but I'm banking on an overconfident Lawler getting caught.
G/l to everyone. Should be a great show.
Back again for some thoughts on the 4/25 UFC show taking place (for the first time) in sunny Miami, Florida.
I'm 6-2-1 in MMA thus far this year, but bettor beware: this card is tight. Very even match-ups, with even the heavy favorites standing a chance of losing. Great for the fans, crap for the high rollers.
Here's what stands out at me. Bet conservatively this time around. With such close bouts, I was looking for value.
Welterweight Title Fight
Matt Hughes over Sean Sherk by Decision +415
Hughes is a monster wrestler who has been hospitalizing recent opposition. He drove Carlos Newton through the mat, pummeled Hayato Sakurai, and beat the pretty out of Newton's face a second time. An accidental headbutt finished Gil Castillo.
Sherk has been operating under the radar for the past few years, but his record of 22-0 is no joke. Like Hughes, Sherk looks to ground opponents and then lay into them. This looks to be a case of the immovable object/irresistable force. The strength of both these guys could wind up negating each other. Hughes is the heavy favorite here at -600, and rightly so. But I don't know that he can stop Sherk outright. Likewise, I don't see how Sherk would be able to snag the belt from the champ in a decision. Good value in this line.
Evan Tanner def. Rich Franklin by TKO +110
Franklin is making his UFC debut here and has looked very impressive as of late. Even so, Tanner is a killer who absolutely loves to deliver sharp elbows to open a fight-ending cut. Franklin may look good early on, but I can't believe Tanner will have much trouble imposing his will here.
Wes Correira def. Sean Alvarez by KO +125
Forget about it: Correira went two rounds with current champ Tim Sylvia while former champ Ricco Rodriguez didn't last two minutes. Alvarez barely fights and has intention to stand up with the slugger. Bad move. "Cabbage" ain't pretty, but he gets the job done here.
Genki Sudo Def. Duane Ludwig by submission -102
Near-even money gets you a solid shot here. Ludwig just KOed former UFC champ Jens Pulver, but Sudo won't be foolish enough to trade strikes with him. Ludwig will get finished on the ground in the first ten minutes. Sudo is way too smooth for him.
Pete Spratt Def. Robbie Lawler +400
Spratt did not impress in November, when Carlos Newton subbed him in seconds. But this is a different game: Lawler fancies himself a striker, but he's never met anyone who hits like Spratt. This will be quick either way, but I'm banking on an overconfident Lawler getting caught.
G/l to everyone. Should be a great show.
